Ten Global South cities are expecting to receive eight million climate migrants due to emissions by 2050 according to an article written by C40 cities. However, if the Paris Agreement targets are met, the scale of this climate migration will be highly reduced. Cities would be able to avoid economic and social disruption if they can be given the right powers and resources to address this migration.
New research done by the Mayors Migration Council, as well
as cities focused on the climate crisis, shows the impact and scale of
climate migration to cities across Southern Asia, South America, and Africa
within the next twenty-five years.
Their research shows that it is likely for up to 8 million
people to move to ten identified cities by 2050 solely based on the climate crisis.
These cities include Bogota, Curitiba, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador,
Amman, Karachi, Dhaka, Accra, and Freetown. Despite how different these cities
are, they will all need to prepare for the influx of migrating people.
All ten cities within the research project are expected to receive migrants due to the climate crisis. However, the level of migration intensity will vary based on the increase of global heating. If the 2015 Paris Agreement target to keep global heating under 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels fails, these 10 countries should expect a huge shift in their populations.
Karachi could receive
up to 2.3 million migrants in the next 25 years. Cities like Bogota, Rio de
Janeiro, as well as Karachi could see a threefold increase in the number of
migrants compared to scenarios where the 2015 Paris Agreement targets are met
and maintained. Cities such as Freetown and Amman should expect at least half
of the people migrating due to the climate breakdown.
The climate crisis would do significant damage to crop yields. It would cause more extreme weather, including floods and wildfires, as well as rising sea levels. These climate migrants have no other options than to find a life worth living somewhere outside of their current environment.
Green transition efforts are out of reach for these
countries. This leaves up to 800 million jobs at risk due to the impacts of the
climate crisis and unplanned transitions. Meanwhile, these migrants face
challenges in finding decent jobs in their new locations.
The research being done shows that migrants are highly
likely to bring essential skills to these 10 cities. Many of these cities are
already finding solutions that are nature-based and they are adapting to the research
the studies show regarding the climate crisis.
Rather than turn the climate into a social, economic, and
global crisis, these cities are creating opportunities. However, they need more
support and recognition to continue their endeavors.
It is crazy how bad climate change is, where people are currently fleeing their currents homes, and trying to transport themselves somewhere better. I like how you are bringing up the 2015 Paris Agreement and how most countries are trying to reduce the Earth's heating by the 1.5 degrees Celcius. With all of these people moving to these other smaller countries, do you think that resources will completely be exhausted in these places and they will have to move again.
ReplyDeleteThe irony of how migrants of developing countries are forced to flee to the U.S when we are one of the main contributors of climate change is astonishing. I find it especially interesting how population influxes are a further contributor to these detrimental causes, and I wonder how these cities plan to manage the population increase while maintaining sustainability so these effects do not worsen and more cities are forced to flee elsewhere. This is an effective and informative post, well done.
ReplyDeleteIt is eye-opening to think about how climate change is driving people to move to cities and the challenges these cities can face as they do so. I liked how the post mentioned that migrants bring important skills and ideas to these cities. It makes me wonder. How can cities make sure migrants get the help they need, without overwhelming the cities’ resources?
ReplyDeleteClimate change’s human cost is a big issue. It’s worrying how migrants will add pressure to cities already low on resources. How can countries work together to help these cities manage more people while fixing the climate problems? Great post!
ReplyDeleteThe term climate migrant is a new one for me. It is so weird and scary to think that climate change will force people out of their homes. What will this do to the cities they left and end up in? There is so much unknown about how climate change will impact not only our resources but the lives of every individual.
ReplyDeleteIt's stuff like this that makes me wonder how people can ever deny the effects of climate change in the first place when it's obviously affecting so many people already.
ReplyDeleteI'm curious, is there any particular reason that those cities are expected to have such an influx? My gut reaction is that in response to climate change and rising temperatures people would go as North as possible. I guess I am just curious about what makes those cities targeted in particular, is it simply the metric that they are large cities and thus displaced rural occupants will flock to urban centers?
ReplyDeleteIt blows my mind to think that so many peoples lives are being so heavily affected by the global warming. Here in the USA we are kind of in our own bubble of news and hardly do we see stories like the ones you write of unless we search for them. It is devastating to think that people are fleeing their land in search of something better and more livable. Where will we all end up in fifty years? Will we all be in the Antarctic and northern Canada?
ReplyDeleteI worry about the influx of populations disrupting these cities to an extent that isn't survivable. It is so sad that people must leave their homes to survive something that policies, governments, and even climate deniers won't help with. Climate change is ruining food supplies, drying up water, and rising sea levels. I can only hope that the Paris agreement continues to work in the right direction and that these cities will be able to handle what comes.
ReplyDeleteI imagine these climate migration numbers will continue to rise. For example, I thought of the CA wildfires and how many people are having to evacuate and move from areas like that.
ReplyDeletesometimes things do not feel real to see how in just a few years so many people will have to leave their homes the place they grew up and were raised all because of climate change is just an unbelievable thought to me but i know this is a real issue that needs to be solved
ReplyDeleteHi Liz,
ReplyDeleteClimate change driven migration is something that I hear about often about as a Geography major and I definitely agree with you that it could lead to significant issues for both receiving countries and those that are losing their population. While migrants do typically boost economies the extreme large influx you described would without a doubt put a lot of strain on resources and infrastructure. Another issue that often arises with the phenomenon is something called "brain drain" in which the smartest/wealthiest have the most mobility to move to a new place resulting in a damper in progress and productivity in the original region.
Seeing the predictions for how bad it will get within the next 30 years is so insane. I don't like thinking about the fact that I may live to see the day where climate change gets so bad there's no room to ignore it. I think this was a great and grounding post.
ReplyDeleteIt's quite significant that you brought up the Paris Agreement. By achieving its goals, the number of people displaced by climate change might be greatly decreased, demonstrating the vital connection between global policy and local results. Although the possible social and economic upheavals you outline are worrisome, it is encouraging to know that cities can transform these difficulties into opportunities if given the necessary tools and authority.
ReplyDeleteThese Global South cities are already straining at the seams and given that we are already passing 1.5ºC now in 2025 (not 2100) their circumstances are going to be all that more dire.
ReplyDelete