Climate Change and the Economy

    The main argument I hear when conservatives try and justify ignoring the climate crisis is that "we have to prioritize the economy", as if reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enforcing regulations is a detriment to the U.S. economy and citizens. However, a recent article from The Guardian absolutely debunks this myth reviewing a more accurate timeline for climate change as well as models that predict impact on global GDP, some of their major findings were that even if we keep global warming under 2° C, which is unlikely due to positive feedback loops, there will still be a GDP decrease by 16% as well as leaving the average person 40% poorer. Here is a picture from the research journal showing which areas will be hit the hardest: 


    Previous assessment models are proving increasingly unreliable especially the standard Integrated Assessment Models or IAM which guide governments on how much to invest in cutting greenhouse gas emissions. These types of models continually failed to account for major risks of climate change such as extreme weather patterns, making them inaccurate in the severity of the problem and offering a cop-out for government funding. The study referenced earlier, based their models by taking one of the most popular economic models and enhanced it with climate change data to display the impacts of extreme weather events on the economy, particularly global supply chains. The author of this article highlights that current economic models only account for weather changes at a local level rather than the extremes brought about by massive climate change. Another source supporting this startling discovery comes from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries UK which reports that:

 "Widely used but deeply flawed assessments of the economic impact of climate change show a negligible impact on GDP, rendering policymakers blind to the immense risk current policy trajectories place us in. The risk-based methodology, set out in the report, shows a 50% GDP contraction between 2070 and 2090 unless an alternative course is chartered."

    Both of these reports prove that an increase in global temperatures will have an overall negative impact on GDP and the economy. Moreover, these studies only took into account one aspect of climate change, how weather could impact supply chains. These models did not include anything related to climate migration, harm to businesses and communities, health risks or availability to freshwater. In fact recent models from the Climate Action Tracker suggest that with current polictys and inaction global temperatures are bound to raise at least 2.7° C. 






21 comments:

  1. It is wild to me that people care more about the economy than the environment. When things are one fire, flooding, in droughts, torn away from tornadoes or hurricanes and thousands of people being displaced or dying each day people will have no choice but to focus on the environment. Also we have seen firsthand how it takes a lot more money to clean up after all of these storms than it does to prevent/slow them down.

    ReplyDelete
  2. This post really opened my eyes—thank you, Arbor. It’s so important that you pointed out how climate action and economic growth aren’t opposites. I agree that we can’t keep ignoring the financial costs of climate change just because some models have downplayed the risks. The research you mentioned shows how serious things could get if we keep delaying action. A 40% drop in personal wealth and major GDP losses are no small thing, especially when many communities are already struggling. It’s time we start seeing climate action as a smart investment, not a burden.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agreed, the costs of reconstruction after these climate related disasters are immense and prevention might be a better investment.

      Delete
  3. I know I commented this before on a different post, but I’ve had experience with an individual using that excuse as to why they don’t believe climate change is an issue. It’s really frustrating knowing that half of the time, these people aren’t even looking at the data or the science.

    ReplyDelete
  4. We have to revolutionize the economy, forget everything its meant before and dismantle capitalistic structures to even hope to change the way we are going. I have little hope, but have lots of anger on the idea that people refuse to look at the hard data or the science in favor of the comfort their money has brought them so far. It seems to be the richest among us that refuse to see the light.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Unfortunately climate change and the economy are in the same sentence 9 times out of 10. The current leadership chooses the economy over the environment time and time again. On another note, many countries need to make their economy stronger before they can do their part in combating climate change.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I totally agree, that's why especially important that wealthy countries like the US who have benefited immensely from activities that contribute to climate change should be taking charge and the brunt of the financial burden

      Delete
  6. This blog brings up such an important point! Climate change and the economy aren't two separate issues. It's frustrating how outdated economic models continue to be used to downplay the real risks.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I love the diagram you included, which shows different models and indicates which regions will be most impacted by global warming. It is alarming to consider the number of adults who prioritize the well-being of the economy over that of human and animal populations and are also misinformed about the underlying assumptions of the relationship between climate change and GDP.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I can see how climate change and the economy aren't seperate issues, and people just aren't realizing that they are looking at short term profit instead of long term profit, because when the world heats up a lot of people are going to struggle financially.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I also think we forget about the jobs created by invest into green energy. I think transitioning people who work in the fossil fuel industry into green industry will be great way for people not to lose jobs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is such a great point! Shifting to green energy should not be viewed as the lesser of two evils but as a solution that can actually have many positive benefits.

      Delete
  10. Whenever we uncover issues such as this and because of past issues being handled either extremely slowly or not at all, I really don't have a good feeling about this (50% contraction is wild)

    ReplyDelete
  11. I think it is really intreating seeing these new metrics especially considering what we learned about economic theories from "The Ministry for the Future".

    ReplyDelete
  12. Climate change poses a far greater threat to the global economy than climate action ever could, with studies predicting massive GDP losses and rising poverty unless urgent measures are taken.

    ReplyDelete
  13. It's really sad how politicized everything has become. If people could set aside their greed we might actually be able to save the Earth from climate change.

    ReplyDelete
  14. 40% poorer?! That's crazy. I can see the government choosing any cop-out and it's extremely disappointing. We deserve better. I think you did a great job with this post. I think that change will only increase our lives, not decrease them. Is the economy really worth the earth?

    ReplyDelete
  15. This is a great post -- I'm even inclined to send it to some family members haha. It is so frustrating how it is common that many republican voters from this past election have used the excuse of prioritizing the economy, when it is clear that they have no idea what they got us into. In fact, there won't be an economy if there is no planet! Still, these statistics were shocking, and I am afraid of our future as more and more people succumb to poverty due to the unhealthy climate.

    ReplyDelete
  16. 40% poorer is a wild and terrifying statistic. It's disappointing that so many discussions on climate change get brought back to the economy or political viewpoints. It's sad to know that so many people and corporations care more about making money than protecting the planet.

    ReplyDelete
  17. It's really interesting to hear about the flaws of the existing economic models and how they don't take into consideration the effects of extreme weather.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Its so obvious that we are in a global economy, but the earlier economic analysis only looked at impacts in nations as if they were isolated from each other. Economists taken as a whole, and with important exceptions, have not been moving us forward.

    ReplyDelete

How to Live More Sustainably

  Earth Day is on April 22nd each year. Do you have any traditions to celebrate it? With the recent passing of Earth Day it made me think o...